Africa plots own diplomatic course on Zimbabwe

Johannesburg - Smiles and hugs marked Africa's crisis summit on Zimbabwe, where President Robert Mugabe won vows of support from African leaders in the face of sharp Western criticism of his autocratic rule. But political analysts said the veteran leader may find Africa's embrace uncomfortably tight as neighbouring countries exert pressure on him to change his ways even as he stands for re-election in polls next year.

"The summit was not an outright victory for Mugabe," said Chris Maroleng, a researcher on Zimbabwe at South Africa's Institute for Security Studies. "Publicly they allowed him to declare that he has the solidarity of Southern African leaders. But behind closed doors there was serious debate and criticism ... they read him the riot act, and are now waiting to see if he listened."

Mugabe - now 83 and one of Africa's canniest political operators - sailed through last week's special southern African summit in Tanzania with aplomb after a month that saw his security forces arrest and beat opposition leaders. He then returned home and rallied his ruling Zanu-PF party to endorse him for re-election next year.

While the United States and Britain called for a tough African response to Mugabe's crackdown, regional leaders emerged with little more than a call to lift Western sanctions against Zimbabwe and a plea for more dialogue. South African President Thabo Mbeki was asked to bring Mugabe together with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), a mission critics quickly dismissed as doomed given the failure of so many earlier reconciliation efforts.

But political analysts said despite the low-key pronouncements, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit had achieved something that Western grandstanding on Zimbabwe had failed to do. "What Zimbabwe has called an internal matter is now being handled at a regional level. To that extent, it is a major breakthrough," said Shadrack Gutto, head of the Centre for African Renaissance Studies at the University of South Africa.

"The onus is now on Mugabe. But that does not mean it is going to be easy. He is a stubborn man, and the older he gets the more stubborn he becomes." Analysts said South Africa was the main force behind the SADC strategy, reflecting fears in Pretoria that Zimbabwe could collapse into conflict just as South Africa gets ready to host the 2010 soccer World Cup. With Zimbabwe's inflation above 1 700 percent and millions of economic refugees streaming across its borders, South Africa has watched nervously as Mugabe's police force steps up repression of the MDC amid an economic crisis exacerbating splits in Mugabe's own ruling Zanu-PF party.

Mugabe's endorsement on Friday as the Zanu-PF candidate for new elections - which could see him extend his rule into a third decade - appeared to paper over some of those differences. But analysts say other party leaders remain worried the country is sliding past the point of no return. South Africa's Weekender newspaper on Saturday quoted unidentified sources as saying Britain and the United States had drafted a five point rescue package for Zimbabwe which could swing into play if Mugabe steps aside.
But South African officials have warned that focussing too much on Mugabe himself risks underestimating the deep systemic problems of ZANU-PF rule in the country. Olmo von Meijenfeldt of South Africa's IDASA think tank said Mbeki would likely seek to reach around Mugabe, forging agreement with both the MDC and disaffected Zanu-PF factions on how to move forward.

"It won't have an immediate effect, but it is a process that is under way. From one perspective, the goal on all sides is to oust Mugabe from his position," he said. Mugabe, of course, has thwarted such efforts in the past and few observers expect him to fade out quietly.

But analysts say Zimbabwe's increasingly dire economic situation - illustrated in a UN report which said that hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans faced starvation this year due to poor harvests - could prove a tipping point that African leaders can exploit.

"The economy is certainly imploding ... and at some point everyone inside and outside the country will see he has to go," said von Meijenfeldt.